What was the biggest weather event in our area during 2011?

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Cold, Wet, And SNOW?!

October will be very active for the eastern part of the country. We will experience the first system starting tomorrow, for parts of Oklahoma. A very strong cold front is diving south across the northern United States, ushering in unseasonably cold air and snow to that part of the county. You can see the chilly air pushing south.
US: Current Temperatures
This cold front will continue moving south, and will push through Oklahoma tomorrow, followed by Texas on on Friday. Behind the front, winds will be strong out of the north around 20 to 30 mph which will send temperatures tumbling. Saturday will be the coldest day thus far, this season. Temperatures will stay in the 50's across north Texas and in the 40's across Oklahoma & Kansas; a 39 degree reading in parts of Oklahoma and/or Kansas is possible. Saturday will shatter several record low maximum high temperatures for several cities including OKC (55) and Tulsa (57). This map shows how cool the NAM is keeping our area on Saturday.

A line of showers & weak thunderstorms will accompany the front as it treks through the Southern Plains on Thursday and Friday. Post frontal rain chances will increase on Friday through Saturday as a weak wave rounds the base of the trough. The majority of the rain should stay in Kansas and Oklahoma, but there's a chance for showers across northern Texas. The rain should remain light to moderate, but none the less it'll be a good soaking rain; amounts on the order of .1-.4".
Some of the guidance has been 'hinting' at wintry precipitation for parts of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. While this is very early in the season, it's not impossible. The soundings for northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas do not appear to be conducive for snow, at this point; however, there are times that we don't have reliable soundings until several hours before an event. With that said, I do not believe that it's entirely impossible for wet flakes to mix in with the rain briefly on Saturday across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. I'll continue to closely evaluate this and bring updates as needed.

One of the bigger concerns will be the potential for a frost or freeze for parts of the Southern Plains. The best night for radiative cooling will be Saturday night. Wherever the skies clear, expect near freezing conditions. The areas that need to prepare are: Kansas, central and northern Oklahoma, the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, Missouri, and northern Arkansas. Temperatures in these areas will range from 30-38 degrees on Sunday morning. Make sure you watch out for you "Three P's"-pets, plants, and pipes. The areas that are included in the blue shaded box are the areas that will likely see a frost-across the southern portions, and a freeze across the northern sections.

The rest of October looks active too. Several storm systems will impact the Southern Plains as well as the eastern seaboard. Cold shots will continue to dive south, so it'll be interesting to see if the northern branch can interact with the southern branch in October. The next storm system to impact the Southern Plains will be around Thursday of next week.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Game Day Forecast! Go Rangers.

Rangers Game Day Forecast for Game 1 looks to be wet. The majority of the rain should stay just north of the ballpark, but there will be a 30% chance for showers with temperatures in the low to mid 70's.

For Game 2, it should be a different story. Dry weather conditions appear to rule this game and the sun may even make an appearance. Temperatures will begin to slowly cool after 7:00 PM. Good luck from Texoma Weather & primoweather.com, RANGERS! 

Saturday, September 29, 2012

North Texas Earthquake!

There was a 3.4 magnitude earthquake 2 miles north of Irving, Texas this evening. The earthquake was shallow which allowed it to be felt over a very large radius. There have been no reports of damage as of yet, and no reports of damage are likely due to the small magnitude.

A few aftershock may be felt overnight, so please be aware of this possibility. I guess we literally felt Texas win the game against OSU.

Cold And SNOW?!

Good afternoon Texoma, with this fall like weather, let's have some fun! The guidance has been 'hinting' on and off about the possibility of a couple strong cold fronts pushing into the Southern Plains between days 7-18. Along with this 'hint' of cold air, there have even been a few 'hints' of wintry type precip falling in the Oklahoma Panhandle, Kansas, and Missouri.

Please keep in mind that this is very far out and will likely change, but I wanted to give some insight as to what the models are showing. I do believe a very chilly air-mass will engulf the Southern Plains by next weekend; with more cold shots through October. What will cause these cold air-masses to push south? A weather phenomenon which is occurring thousands of miles away will cause the cold air-masses to move south into our area.

The Southern Plains will be indirectly impacted by Typhoon Jelawat and Tropical Storm Ewiniar which are in the Western Pacific at this time. These two systems are pushing into the higher latitudes and are bringing warm air into those higher latitudes. The atmosphere will 'balance' itself by sending cold air south, and that southward push will impact the United States.

With all of this said, I do believe a strong cold front will impact the Southern Plains, but as for the wintry precip, that's a long shot and will likely not happen. It's fun to day dream about though! Enjoy the rain, and don't forget to check out our 2012-13 Winter Outlook.
(This is the 12Z GFS forecast snow accumulations at 180 hours-October 7th, 2012.)

(276 Hours)

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Rain, Rain, And More Rain!

Good evening Texoma. Rain chances will be very high over the next 48-72 hours; we are going with 80-90% coverage. By Sunday afternoon, the majority of Texas and Oklahoma will have seen at least a drop of rain. Deep moisture is feeding northward from the Gulf of Mexico tonight which will help set the stage for heavy rainfall-some flooding is possible, especially south of I-20 in Texas.

This deep Gulf moisture will be in place as energy from once Hurricane Miriam moves across Texas, will aid in a large rain shield, with embedded thunderstorms, to develop across the west Texas and slowly push eastward. Rainfall rates will be high and some isolated locations could pick up 5-9" of rain! This is the latest map from the HPC, which shows near 100% coverage across the Southern Plains.
This graphic is in line with what much of the guidance is showing. This map may actually be slightly conservative for the Hill Country of Texas where the aforementioned 5-9" of rainfall could fall. Along with flooding, a few damaging wind gusts may occur with some of the storms Friday and Saturday; with that said it's a very low-end risk due to weak shear.

Rain chances will increase throughout the day Friday and through Saturday afternoon. By Sunday our rain chances will become lower, and shower coverage will be more isolated. A weak cool front will move through all of Oklahoma and into northern Texas on Sunday too, which should help taper rain chances across northern Texas and Oklahoma; rain will be confined to southern Texas at this point. Temperatures throughout this time-frame will be below average due to thick clouds and falling precipitation-mainly in the 80's on Friday with 70's possible on Saturday.

We will then pay close attention to the extended, 7-12 days, when a strong cold front looks to move through our area. This cool down will actually be partially related to Typhoon Jelawat. As Jelawat moves N/NNE and impacts Japan, it will force warm & moist air into the higher latitudes which in return the atmosphere will try to 'balance' this impact and send cold air southward into our neck of the woods. We will keep a close eye on this cold front as well as the rain chances over the next few days. We will have updates as needed.

(These thoughts are that of "Texoma Weather" and primoweather.com. For official information, please see www.nws.noaa.gov)

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Rain Chances On The Incease

Good afternoon, Texoma! Rain chances are slowly creeping back into our forecast. Storms have fired in the eastern Texas Panhandle; those storms will push ENE through the evening hours. These storms are the first in a series of storms that will develop throughout the week in response to an elongated upper level trough. Parts of central/northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas will get very heavy rainfall; some locations could pick up 2-5".

Later in the week and over the weekend, western/southern Texas could get in on the action too. A piece of energy from Hurricane Miriam may move over Texas producing excessive rainfall in excess of 3". Guidance is all over the place with the evolution of this energy, but I'm leaning towards the heavier rain that the ECMWF showing. This model has been very consistent with this feature. Temperatures will cool across the Southern Plains due to an increase in clouds/precip. I'll have updates as needed.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

2012-13 Winter Outlook

This winter should be very different from last winter.  We at "Texoma Weather" & primoweather.com are expecting chilly & stormy conditions for the eastern part of the nation.  It's no secret that we will deal with a weak to moderate El Nino this season, and it no secret what its impacts are on the nation-specifically across the Southern Plains. 

Let's start out looking at the 'big picture!'  We are expecting frequent arctic visits east of the Rockies.  Temperatures should be below average for the eastern third of the nation;  the Southern Plains and Southeast will also see below average temperatures.  (The northwest will deal with temperatures that are slightly above average.)  Expect wet conditions for much of the southern United States, and some of that will be in the form of winter precipitation.  California will receive some much needed rainfall as will the Southeast-places like Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Now let's bring it in and look at Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.  We are expecting a very active winter for the Southern Plains.  Temperatures will be below average with above average precipitation.  There will be several winter precipitation chances for central-northern Texas, Oklahoma, and central-southern Kansas;  snow & ice will be above average for cities across the Southern Plains such as Dallas-Fort Worth, OKC-Norman, Tulsa, & Wichita.  

The above average precipitation will be caused by an active southern jet.  There will be several disturbances and cutoff lows that traverse across the lower latitudes of the United States.  This active jet paired with a negative PDO means a wintry mess will likely develop a few times across the southern portion of the country. 

The first wintry precip event should evolve in Kansas, Oklahoma & the Texas Panhandle in mid-November; we wouldn't be surprised to see some sleet pellets/flurries fall in Kansas earlier than that.  North Texas can expect to see it's first wintry event by early December.  The most active winter period should evolve from late-November through mid-January, followed by another peak in mid-February. 

We will have updates on our forecast as needed.  This is our preliminary winter outlook and should be used as that.  Please keep an eye out for severe weather this winter season too because there could be a couple severe weather events for eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast States. 
(For official forecasts, please see www.nws.noaa.gov)