The tropics have been quiet over the past few weeks, but that appears to be changing in the near future. We are watching a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic that has potential to slowly develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next 3-7 days; this is also supported by several numerical models.
Invest 99L-the aforementioned tropical wave, while experiencing relatively conducive conditions for further development will have a few obstacles to overcome before any significant strengthening occurs. This wave will have to fight of the dry Saharan air as it treks further north which will likely slow the development of the system. (The environment the system is in now is moist.)
Another big factor is the the positioning of the wave; it's near 8-9 degrees N which is close to the equator. This proximity to the equator will hinder the systems rotation due to the lack of the Coriolis Force-acceleration caused by the earth's rotation.
99L still has a lack of convection associated with the wave, but a slow increase in convection is likely. (Latest water vapor satellite image, courtesy NHC)
The wind-shear remains low ahead of the system which should allow the wave to slowly organize and allow further convection to develop-and likely consolidate to form a closed surface low. The NHC has given Invest 99L a 20% of development over the next couple of days. (Tropical Outlook from the NHC.)
Without a developed system, we will be very vague on possible tracks for the system. The wave will appears it will either move WNW into the Caribbean or possibly take a more NW track. The Greater and Lesser Antilles need to keep a close eye on this system over the next few days. Please note that this track map is www.primoweather.com's and Texoma Weather's projected path and is not the opinion of the NHC or NWS.
We will have updates on this system over the next several days. For official information please see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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