Are Texas & Oklahoma In The Ballgame For Isaac?

Good Afternoon Texoma,

I hope you all have had an amazing weekend; hopefully you picked up some rainfall too.  Let's get right to, the overnight forecast model runs have shifted the 'track' of Tropical Storm Isaac to the left-west.  A couple  reliable models are even showing potential impacts for eastern Texas & Oklahoma.  This graphic shows what the current thinking is for Isaac per forecast models.

The reasoning behind the northerly track-ECMWF, and the northwesterly track-GFS is that the ECMWF has Isaac being picked up by a trough, whereas the GFS has Isaac being caught under the ridge which will try to dominate the Southern Plains.  The 12Z GFS shows Isaac moving northwest to near NOLA, followed by a westerly track towards the southeastern Texas coast.  Once Isaac approaches the Texas Coast, per GFS, Isaac moves into northeastern Texas. (Please note that the models could shift east with the next run.  Forecast models can flip-flop more than a politician.)

Isaac is currently a 65mph tropical storm with pressure down to 995mb.  Further strengthening is likely with Isaac and Hurricane Isaac is possible by this evening.  The 'track' of  Isaac will be monumental in forecasting the strength, but a Category 2 or 3 hurricane is possible.  Residents who live along the Gulf Coast from Beaumont, Texas to Pensacola, Florida need to keep a close eye on future forecasts.

Here is the official cone from the NHC and the NAVY.
NHC Cone


























NAVY Cone
We will have updates on Isaac as needed.  Please note that these are the thoughts of 'Texoma Weather' & www.primoweather.com.  This forecast is not official and you are encouraged to see
www.nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts.