Good Monday afternoon, we have some interesting weather to talk about. First off, this morning was very cold across Texoma, everybody was below freezing and some locations in southern Oklahoma dropped down into the teens!
Fast forward to Thursday, a strong cold front, Canadian/Arctic in nature, will move into Texoma. The NAM/GFS models are pushing the front through the entire area into central Texas; however, other models aren't as aggressive with the southern push of the cold air. The ECMWF even shows the front lifting slowly north as the low approaches from out west. Right now I believe the NAM is on to something, with the fast advancement of the front southward, because these cold air-masses are unpredictable and have a history of pushing further south than models show. As the front pushes through the area a strong upper level low will be pushing east, towards our area. With this system approaching precipitation should begin to develop, and with cold air in place some areas could get wintery precip. Precipitation will develop in west Texas early Friday morning and eventually spread into Texoma over the weekend. In regards to the strength of this system, the models diverge; the ECMWF is forecasting the system to weaken into an open wave, while the GFS is showing a strong closed low. This will have huge implications on the forecast, precip type, whether the system moves through closed or as an open wave. My thoughts right now are that parts of west Texas, the Red River counties of north Texas west of HWY 75, and Southern Oklahoma have the best shot at any wintery precip. I'm not saying they will get snowfall, I'm just saying right now it's a real possibility. Continue to check back frequently as the forecast continues to be revised as more research is done on the system. We will get a better picture of what will happen in the coming days as the system is sampled and that information is input in to the models. Again, I'm not saying we will have snowfall, but it is a possibility. As of right now this is what I'm expecting, but this WILL change and we could see an all RAIN event; it would be a very cold rain.
Here are two great sites to get the latest information from expert meteorologists' at the NWS.
**This forecast is my opinion on what will happen; I'm not affiliated with the NWS. Check the two websites posted above to see official information from NWS.**