Hot, Hot, HOT!!!

I hope you all are having a great Thursday.  It has been miserably hot over the past several days, but there's a little relief in sight.  Temperatures will cool by 2-6 degrees  across Texoma tomorrow and even further by the weekend. 

The massive ridge that has been in place, which is responsible for our hot temperatures, will have a pretty subtle weakness over the weekend.  This weakness will allow a quick surge of moisture over the weekend which could allow for one or two pulse variety storms to form; most areas will stay dry.

The ridge will strengthen its grip over our area on Monday and Tuesday causing temperatures to spike once more.  Your 4th of July forecast looks hot with a slight chance for thunderstorms during the evening hours.  We will have updates over the next few days to fine tune your holiday forecast.

Also, we are keeping an eye on a tropical wave that's east of the Windward Islands for possible development over the next several days!

Earthquakes, Thunderstorms, Tornado, and Tropics!

We have a lot to talk about today, but I'll try to not to make it too wordy.  Over the past few days, several parts of Texoma have picked up very beneficial rainfall.  This rain did come with a price for some areas, especially Fannin County.  The Fort Worth National Weather Service confirms an EF0 tornado caused damage north of Randolph.  Winds were estimated around 85mph with this tornado which caused damage to several homes and barns.  Most of the damage in the County was caused by softball sized hail and 85-95mph straight line winds.  Three people were injured in this storm.

Three other predominant supercells in the DFW Metroplex caused an estimated $400 million in damage on June 13th.  Most of the damage was caused by 3-5" hail that created a winter-like scene with inches of hail piling up on the ground.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms today in north Texas and southern Oklahoma.  The scenario that will play out is unclear, but some of the models are paining a thundery scenario for the area this afternoon.  The morning convection will need to move out of the area to allow the atmosphere to recover.  It appears this will occur, and an MCV which is located in south-central Oklahoma will be the culprit for thunderstorm development this afternoon.  If storms develop, they could become severe with damaging winds and very large hail.

This morning around 2:02am there was a 3.1 earthquake between Cleburne and Fort Worth.  Many people felt the earthquake across north Texas.  The earthquake caused no injuries or damage.

A 2.5 earthquake occurred in Oklahoma yesterday too; this one was near Oklahoma City!  The quake was not felt widespread because of its low magnitude.  No injuries or damage were reported with the earthquake near OKC.

These earthquakes come just weeks after a 4.3 earthquake occurred near Timpson, Texas which caused one injury and minor damage.

Tropical troubles could be in store for Texas!!  Computer models have been consistent in developing a tropical system over the Bay of Campeche and moving it into the Gulf of Mexico.  At that point it appears the system could impact Texas; likely dumping heavy rainfall and possibly spinning up a few tornadoes.  This tropical system, if it develops, would begin to impact Texas around Friday-Saturday of next week.

Isolated, Very Severe Storms Today!!

Good afternoon Texoma!  Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the area.  These thunderstorms will be isolated in nature, but the ones that develop will be extremely damaging; with hail larger than grapefruit size, 70-80mph winds, and an isolated tornado, along the Red River, are all possible.

(This is the severe weather outlook, per SPC; notice most of Texoma is included in this outlook.  Dallas-Fort Worth, Wichita Falls, Norman-OKC, and southern Tulsa are all at risk.)

At this hour there is a strong CAP in place which will limit storm coverage this afternoon.  The CAP will weaken as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 90's, coupled with 70-74 degree dewpoints, which will lead to CAPE values at or above 5000 J/KG in some areas!!  CAPE values that high will allow for extremely large hail and damaging winds.  There will be a small opportunity for isolated tornadoes this evening once the cold front pushes into the Red River Counties.  The boundary could allow for the LCL to lower which will allow for this enhanced tornado opportunity during the evening hours.

(Tornado threat today, per SPC.  Again, the best chance for an isolated tornado is along the Red River!)

We will have updates throughout the afternoon on this evolving situation.  Please stay alert today because once storms form they will quickly become severe!