Tropics: Ernesto?!

The tropics have been quiet over the past few weeks, but that appears to be changing in the near future.  We are watching a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic that has potential to slowly develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next 3-7 days; this is also supported by several numerical models.

Invest 99L-the aforementioned tropical wave, while experiencing relatively conducive conditions for further development will have a few obstacles to overcome before any significant strengthening occurs.  This wave will have to fight of the dry Saharan air as it treks further north which will likely slow the development of the system.  (The environment the system is in now is moist.)

Another big factor is the the positioning of the wave; it's near 8-9 degrees N which is close to the equator.  This proximity to the equator will hinder the systems rotation due to the lack of the Coriolis Force-acceleration caused by the earth's rotation.

99L still has a lack of convection associated with the wave, but a slow increase in convection is likely.  (Latest water vapor satellite image, courtesy NHC)

The wind-shear remains low ahead of the system which should allow the wave to slowly organize and allow further convection to develop-and likely consolidate to form a closed surface low.  The NHC has given Invest 99L a 20% of development over the next couple of days.  (Tropical Outlook from the NHC.)

Without a developed system, we will be very vague on possible tracks for the system.  The wave will appears it will either move WNW into the Caribbean or possibly take a more NW track.  The Greater and Lesser Antilles need to keep a close eye on this system over the next few days.  Please note that this track map is www.primoweather.com's and Texoma Weather's projected path and is not the opinion of the NHC or NWS. 

We will have updates on this system over the next several days.  For official information please see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Wet End To July!!

Texoma will be blessed with beneficial rainfall to end the month of July.  A surface cold front will move into extreme northern Oklahoma tonight which should be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  The convection that forms will push the front further south into Oklahoma on Thursday which will increase Texoma's rain chances.  Scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front Thursday and Friday becoming quite numerous at times; especially in southern Oklahoma.  You can see on the HPC map just how widespread the activity could become;  north Texas can expect .50-.75" while southern Oklahoma could pick up a quick 1.00-1.25".

A few storms could become strong-possibly severe on Thursday afternoon.  The main threat is damaging winds in excess of 50-75mph.  With that said, if you have any outdoor plans make sure you stay alert to Texoma Weather and www.primoweather.com for the latest updates.

Very Hot, But A 10% Chance Of Storms

Today will be another hot day across Texoma and all of the Southern Plains.  Most locations will easily exceed the 100 degree mark with a few locations topping 107. But, with that said, there is an ever so slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon.
Thunderstorms developed in northern Oklahoma yesterday, along a diffuse boundary, and pushed south overnight.  The storms have fallen apart as of this morning, but not before a small circulation, known as an MCV, developed.  This MCV is currently over south-central Oklahoma and its pushing slowly southward.  As it treks into the Red River Counties this afternoon a couple isolated thunderstorms could develop.  Chances are about 10-15%, but if you get under a storm, expect heavy rainfall and possibly downburst winds.