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Latest NAM model run valid 00Z/6pm CST Thursday February 02, 2012 shows a potent Severe Weather setup for the NW Texas area into SW Oklahoma. ATTM the area of Greatest Interest looks to be generally from Haskell-Abilene, Texas. In this area CAPE values look to be maximized in the 1250-1500 J/kg range, with decent Lift Indicies along a sharpening slowly eastward advancing Dryline. As large scale acsent approaches the region, a 40-55 knt jet at 500 mb coupled with a strong SE Surface flow will promote strong Directional/Speed Shear, as charactorized by large clockwise curved Hodographs, creating an environment that will become increasingly favorable for the development of Surface Based T-Storms, including Supercells. If a Supercell can become organized and rooted within the Boundry Layer (where LCL's are forecasted to be 1000m or less in the above mentioned region), all facets of Severe Weather would be possible: Large Hail, Damaging Winds as well as a couple of Isolated Tornadoes during the late evening/early nighttime hours.
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