Heavy Rain!

Southerly winds are on the increase this evening, as higher dewpoints surge northward.  This surge in moisture will help set the stage for heavy rainfall over the next couple of days.  A trough is currently over the southwest and will push eastward while slowly closing off.  This closed low will slowly move across Texas, Wednesday through Thursday.  Texoma will begin to see the impacts from this system as early as tomorrow, late afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms will erupt as the low moves into eastern New Mexico, and as a warm front separating moist air from very moist air will moves north.  The warm front will lie across southeastern Texas tomorrow afternoon, well south of I-20.  Locations north of the warm front will see elevated thunderstorms develop with a hail threat, while locations south of the front could see large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado threat. (The wind-shear near the warm front will be high!)  I'm very concerned in regards to the tornado threat; people in south Texas need to stay abreast to the threatening weather tomorrow.  Here is the latest outlook from the SPC. (The greatest tornado threat is in the yellow shaded region; the brown shaded region, north of the yellow shaded region, will likely see elevated storms with large hail.) 

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat associated with this slow moving low.  Elevated thunderstorms will likely "train" over the same locations which could cause some isolated flash flooding.  Locations east of I-35 have the best shot at seeing the heaviest rainfall; several locations east of 35 will see 3-4"+. (I would not be surprised to see some isolated 5-8" amounts!)

The aforementioned warm front will continue to move slowly north into Wednesday, and setup just west of I-35.  Elevated thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall, will continuously ignite near this frontal boundary as the low slowly treks across central Texas.  Heavy rain will be the main threat on Wednesday, but with high shear values in the warm sector, an isolated tornado/wind threat does exists; the clouds and rain will likely limit the severe potential.  The SPC has outlined an area of 5% severe probabilities on Wednesday, at this time.

In extreme west Texas, some wet snow will be possible underneath the closed low, Wednesday into Wednesday night.  The locations that can expect to see some snow will be the Big Bend part of Texas. (It's possible that parts of the Panhandle and southwest parts of Oklahoma could see a flake or two mix in, but at this time that's a very slight chance.  The strength and track of the low will be crucial in regards to the snow potential, out west.) I will include an optimistic map, in terms of snow, from the Lubbock NWS.

Right now it appears the low will weaken as it moves across Texas, thus dynamic cooling will become less of an issue, meaning snow chances will decrease with the eastward movement of the low.
We will continue to monitor this developing situation and give updates as needed.  The track/strength of this system is not set in stone some some adjustments are likely over the next 12-18 hours.  Check out the severe weather/tornado safety tips on www.primoweather.com under the severe weather tab.  A cool front will move into Oklahoma on Friday, as a short wave pivots across northern Oklahoma possibly bringing a light rain/snow mix.  More on this in the coming days.