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Sunday, September 23, 2012

2012-13 Winter Outlook

This winter should be very different from last winter.  We at "Texoma Weather" & primoweather.com are expecting chilly & stormy conditions for the eastern part of the nation.  It's no secret that we will deal with a weak to moderate El Nino this season, and it no secret what its impacts are on the nation-specifically across the Southern Plains. 

Let's start out looking at the 'big picture!'  We are expecting frequent arctic visits east of the Rockies.  Temperatures should be below average for the eastern third of the nation;  the Southern Plains and Southeast will also see below average temperatures.  (The northwest will deal with temperatures that are slightly above average.)  Expect wet conditions for much of the southern United States, and some of that will be in the form of winter precipitation.  California will receive some much needed rainfall as will the Southeast-places like Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Now let's bring it in and look at Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.  We are expecting a very active winter for the Southern Plains.  Temperatures will be below average with above average precipitation.  There will be several winter precipitation chances for central-northern Texas, Oklahoma, and central-southern Kansas;  snow & ice will be above average for cities across the Southern Plains such as Dallas-Fort Worth, OKC-Norman, Tulsa, & Wichita.  

The above average precipitation will be caused by an active southern jet.  There will be several disturbances and cutoff lows that traverse across the lower latitudes of the United States.  This active jet paired with a negative PDO means a wintry mess will likely develop a few times across the southern portion of the country. 

The first wintry precip event should evolve in Kansas, Oklahoma & the Texas Panhandle in mid-November; we wouldn't be surprised to see some sleet pellets/flurries fall in Kansas earlier than that.  North Texas can expect to see it's first wintry event by early December.  The most active winter period should evolve from late-November through mid-January, followed by another peak in mid-February. 

We will have updates on our forecast as needed.  This is our preliminary winter outlook and should be used as that.  Please keep an eye out for severe weather this winter season too because there could be a couple severe weather events for eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast States. 
(For official forecasts, please see www.nws.noaa.gov)

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