2012 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

The 2012 hurricane season will be near average, to slightly above average; hurricane season for the Atlantic is from June 1^st through November 30^th.  First, here are our thoughts in terms of numbers:

2012 Tropical Storms: 13-14      NOAA Average: 12

2012 Hurricanes: 6-7                   NOAA Average: 6

2012 Major Hurricanes: 3           NOAA Average: 2

The hurricane season could get off to an early start, with possible development in the western Caribbean next week.  It appears a low pressure will develop over the western Caribbean and meander over the very warm waters.  The steering currents in the area will be very minimal at this time which could allow the low to slowly organize.  Even if this doesn’t materialize, conditions will be conducive for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean over the next three weeks.

This season will likely feature a lot of “home-grown” storms; storms that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.  The possibility of these “home-grown” storms means locations from Brownsville, Texas to New York City, New York need to be on high alert, especially the Gulf States.  Don’t let your guard down due to the near average season expectancy.

The two main reasons as to why I believe hurricane development will be hard to come by in the eastern Atlantic are: relative cooling of the eastern Atlantic waters and the possible development of El Nino this summer.  In order for tropical development to occur, systems need very warm surface water, which has a lot of energy, for storms to thrive.  El Nino also does its harm by typically causing a lot of wind shear which isn’t favorable for tropical systems, unlike thunderstorms in the Plains.

Those are our forecast thoughts for the upcoming hurricane season.  We may need to slightly adjust these numbers as we head into the season.  There are still some questions regarding El Nino which could force us to change the numbers as we get later into the year.  With that said, don’t focus solely on the numbers; all hurricane forecasts are an educated guess!  What you need to focus on are the possibility of “home-grown” storms!  If you live along the coast, from Brownsville, Texas to New York City, New York, be on high alert this season; especially along the Gulf Coast.  It only takes on major storm to impact the coast for the season to be considered “bad!”

 (Here are the areas that I'm concerned about for the 2012 hurricane season.  The red shaded region has the greatest impact threat from tropical systems.)

**This forecast is not official and is the opinion of forecasters at Texoma Weather, primoweather.com.  For official information please refer to www.nws.noaa.gov!