Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall

Today has been beautiful across the area after a very cold start to the day, many areas dropped below freezing in North Texas and Southern Oklahoma. 

The next big weather system that will impact our area is currently out west and moving our way. The winds have switched and are now from the south-southeast which will transport moisture into Texoma. This will set the stage for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Pops will increase as early as Sunday as the system out west gets closer to Texoma and deeper moisture surges north. As a low pressure system strengthens it will slowly push a front into the area Sunday, near the I-44 corridor. The front will then stall and eventually push its way through the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Not only will the south winds bring in a good amount of moisture, with 60 degree+ dewpoints, but a warm-front will develop and surge northward. Moisture, instability, and strong wind shear will be in place which is favorable for a severe weather episode in Texoma.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman has highlighted a few areas of concern, for severe weather, on Sunday night and Tuesday. I feel the SPC will issues a slight risk for Sunday night through Tuesday morning, soon, with the latest guidance coming in and presenting a good setup for severe weather. Sunday evening should present a chance for elevated storms with large hail, however, if a storm could become surface based it would increase the risk for damaging winds and  isolated tornadoes. The forecast should become clearer within the next day.

This D5 image is for Tuesday when a strong chance for severe weather exists. The system which will be in West Texas Monday will become negatively tilted late in the day. Tornadoes, hail, and high winds all appear possible, and more likely than on Sunday, Monday night. While a severe weather threat has not been issued for Monday by the SPC, that's when I think the best chance for severe weather will be, depending on the timing of the system. I think the best chance for widespread severe weather will be Monday afternoon into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. The storms Monday night will be powerful, especially if the clouds can breakup during the early afternoon.

This system will also dump heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains. Texoma should get widespread 1.25"+ rainfall, some isolated areas could get over 2.50". The Red River Counties of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma should get the highest amounts of rainfall with this system, but all of North Texas will have a chance of some beneficial rainfall.

Also, some cold air looks to be in store for the last part of November and most of December. Get ready for a wild ride this 2011-2012 winter season!