Heavy Rainfall, Thunderstorms, Snow(West)..Followed By Cold!

The models are finally agreeing on the strong upper low that will impact Texoma, late tonight through Tuesday; the low will track between I-10 and I-20.  The main impacts will be heavy rainfall in Texoma with most locations receiving over 1".  Locations east of HWY 75, and south of the Red River, could get between 1.75-2.5".  

Southeastern parts of Texas will get the heaviest rainfall, and will also have a chance for isolated severe storms, tomorrow.  As the low tracks eastward, it will deepen over west Texas, increasing our rainfall chances, and increasing the threat for severe thunderstorms.  The main limiting factor will be instability, due to thick cloud cover and early morning showers; however, some thunderstorms that become surface based have a shot at producing damaging winds, and there's a very slim chance for an isolated tornado.  Here are the probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center.


On the backside of this deepening low, and directly underneath it, will be snowfall, some of if it heavy!  The locations that will see the heaviest snow, 4-8", are: the western Big Country, portions of the Edwards Plateau, and the Concho Valley. (Elevation will play a big role in terms of snowfall totals!) These locations will see snow starting to mix in with the rain, tomorrow and then continuing into Tuesday.  Some portions of Texoma, 50 miles west of I-35, could see some wet snow mix in with the rainfall too, no accumulations are likely. (We will continue to monitor the track, strength, and temperature profiles, in case any eastward or westward changes need to be made to the current snow line.)

The next strong cold front will blast through Texoma late Wednesday into early Thursday.  Very cold air will filter into our region behind this front.  Temperatures will likely stay in the upper 30's and lower 40's, for highs.  A few models were hinting at another southern storm moving overhead Friday, but those models have now backed off on that solution.  We will continue to monitor the latest trends because if an overrunning scenario were to develop, we could have a problem on our hands; temps would be cold enough to support winter precipitation.  

There will likely be several more cold air-masses moving into Texoma over the next few weeks due to the AO (Arctic Oscillation) going negative.  When the AO goes negative, there tends to be higher pressure over the pole regions which can penetrate cold air-masses southward, towards our region.

Another factor, which will play a role in sending cold air-masses into our region, is the stratospheric warming event that is forecast to kick into high gear in the next several days.  The warming of the stratosphere can cause a displacement of the polar vortex, which in return can send very frigid air southward. 

There are some inconsistencies in regards to air-masses moving south or southeast, and just exactly how long the air-masses will stay in place, over a particular region.  Right now I think the coldest air (prolonged event) will stay to the northeast, closer to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, however, that does not mean that the South will not see cold weather because we WILL.  

The weather over the next few weeks will be very interesting, unlike the last several days.  Texoma Weather will continue to monitor the pattern change and provide updates as needed.  (If there are any changes in Monday/Tuesday's system, we will update you all; this system needs to be monitored!  Deepening lows, during the winter-time, are notorious for proving several surprises for the Texoma region.) Winter is nowhere near being over!