What was the biggest weather event in our area during 2011?

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Enjoy This Mild Weather! Blue Norther On The Way?

The last few days of December will feature beautiful weather with mild days and cool nights, however, don't get used to this because a full latitude trough could develop which would usher in a much colder air mass.Image
Right now the models are split on the extended pattern, but a few reliable models are showing this pattern change to ring in the new year. The ECMWF has been advertising this trough for a couple days now and now the CMC is joining in on this solution too. (The GFS, which has been very unreliable as of late, is showing a front moving through, but not nowhere near the magnitude of the ECMWF. The 18ZGFS does show a stronger push of arctic air towards the end of next week.) If the ECMWF is correct the blue norther would blow through Texoma Sunday bringing in very chilly air, not record breaking cold, but still very cold. Highs would likely be in the 30's with lows in the upper teens Sunday through Tuesday. The forecast should be dry with the exception of showers/isolated thunderstorms accompanying the passing frontal boundary; precip behind the front is questionable, but at this time I think the moisture will move out of the area quickly, thus leaving the forecast dry. With that being said it's easy for weak systems to move overhead, with cold air masses in place, and squeeze out what little moisture remains in the atmosphere. I will keep an eye on the evolution of this system and continue to update you all as confidence grows. This blue norther isn't set in stone by any means, but confidence is growing in this arctic air surging south. The 00Z models tonight will be very important as to whether the GFS joins the ECMWF, and to see if the ECMWF continues its blue norther solution.

No comments:

Post a Comment