Big Changes!

A powerful low spinning over southern California will eventually have major impacts on our area. The low is currently meandering, but will get a jolt eastward later today. The system will have its most widespread impacts, on our area, Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. As the system moves closer to Texoma it will pull up ample moisture from the Gulf, Monday morning. Accompanying the moisture will be light showers and low clouds; this should limit instability on Monday, however, with such deep moisture and extremely high values of shear severe weather will be possible. The best chance for severe weather will be Monday afternoon/evening, and here is the area that the SPC has highlighted for Monday.

The best chance for severe weather will be in our southern counties, I-20 southward, but the severe weather threat extends northward into the southern two rows of counties in southern Oklahoma, at this time. The main threats tomorrow will be damaging winds, but the tornado threat exists too, in southern Texoma, especially if strong destabilization occurs. Not only do we have a threat of severe weather, but heavy rainfall will occur too.
On the north side, and backside, of this system it will be a different story. Very heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions are possible in the Texas panhandle, the Oklahoma panhandle, and northwestern Oklahoma. Blizzard Watches are in place for parts of the above mentioned areas; as much as one-two feet of snow and 50mph winds are expected as the storm wraps up.

As the low pulls away a strong cold front will plow through Texoma with temperatures falling throughout Tuesday. On the backside of the low a strong deformation zone, snow, will move across northern Oklahoma. While we shouldn't be impacted by this deformation zone some light snow flurries/sprinkles will be possible behind the front, especially in northwest Texoma. Another system will impact the area late week, and I will have details on this system in the coming days. Word of caution, this low is still 36 hours away and a lot can change in the hours leading up to an event. While the models are in relatively good agreement, in terms of the track, on the system just a slight change in track north/south can have big implications on this forecast. I will continue to update you, via Facebook, as needed. Today is the day to prepare for this system in terms of severe weather, south, and for blizzard conditions if you live in the panhandle area. Here is a great website to get extremely accurate information, and constant updates, from extremely talented meteorologists as the storm gets closer: www.nws.noaa.gov