Severe Thunderstorms and an Interesting Extended Forecast!

A very potent low over New Mexico will be the culprit for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. As this low moves northeast it will pull down a cold front that will be the focus point for severe storms.
Along with a powerful low and cold front the Gulf moisture and shear will help set the stage for severe storms; at this hour moisture is rapidly spreading northeast, dewpoints will likely rise into the 60's this afternoon.

The big question and possible limiting factor is the instability. With lift increasing and moisture on the increase too, thick cloud cover will likely keep the atmosphere from getting too unstable. If  breaks in the cloud cover were to form then the severe threat would be higher. (A few breaks are forming in the cloud deck east of I-35.) By this afternoon CAPE should be around 750-1000J/KG, south, to 250-500J/KG, north, even without breaks in the cloud cover. This is enough instability for severe thunderstorms. The main threat will be damaging winds this afternoon, however, isolated tornadoes will be possible across north Texas.

Wrap around moisture will be the last impact from this powerhouse storm. Once the front moves through some low cloud clover and sprinkles will be possible Tuesday behind this system. Some locations in northern Texoma could actually see flurries mix in with the sprinkles as temperatures fall. The next system to impact us will be on Wednesday night. Moisture will increase and light rainfall will form across parts of the area, east of I-35 and south of I-20. The latest run of the NAM is interesting because it shows moisture spreading further north than previous runs. This trend will need to be monitored due to the chilly air lurking near the Red River. Christmas weekend is still up in the air, however, some models are hinting at an over running precip event with cold air settled into the area. We have not seen a white Christmas too many times, but if the models continue with the trends one could be upon us. I'm not saying we will see a white Christmas, yet, but some models are hinting at it. We will continue to update you on this scenario, as it's still several days away and a lot will change. One thing for sure, though, a cold Christmas is likely!