Thunderstorms Followed by Cold, and Snow/Ice?

Some light showers are gracing parts of Texoma tonight, however, don't expect anything significant from these showers. Rainfall will be heavier during the evening hours tomorrow as a shortwave traverses over the area. The big event will come on Wednesday! A relatively strong system moves just to our north forcing a pacific cold to race southward Wednesday evening. Accompanying the front will be showers and thunderstorms; especially near the I-35 corridor and to the east. Here's our preliminary outlook.
Shear looks to be extremely strong, for this time of year, but instability looks rather meager due to thick clouds. Due to the meager instability widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, but there will be a few isolated strong/severe thunderstorms Wednesday late afternoon. If some sunshine is able to make it through the clouds then severe thunderstorm chances would be higher, and could change the whole ballgame. We will continue to monitor this forecast and update it as we get closer to the event. This is the area that the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for Wednesday.

Another system will impact our area Friday through Monday. Showers will be possible at any point over weekend the way it looks at this moment. Models are all over the place with this system, but it's safe to say we will see cooler temperatures and more precipitation. Once the models start to converge on a solution I'll have an update on the weekend/early next week forecast. We need to pay close attention to this next system as some models are hinting at winter weather early next week, and it is that time of the year. Texoma will be in an active pattern over the next 10-14 days with several lows moving across the area providing clouds and precipitation. The next couple of weeks, including Christmas week, appear to be very interesting with above average precipitation and below average temperatures to follow. We will have an updated blog in the coming days.